- Frontrunner Zohran Mamdani must convince Black voters skeptical of ambitious campaign promises, including free buses, free universal childcare and a rent freeze on 1 million apartments.
- Former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who is running as an indepdendent, is making explicit appeals to Republican voters after GOP nominee Curtis Sliwa refused to drop out.
- Mamdani, a strong critic of Israel, received significant Jewish support in the June Democratic primary. Cuomo and Sliwa have implied Mamdani is antisemitic.
NEW YORK − New Yorkers are turning out in historic numbers in the race for mayor of the nation’s largest city.
The off-year general election normally isn’t competitive in New York, a heavily Democratic city. But ahead of Election Day Nov. 4, the race is contested in a crowded field.
Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani, a state Assemblyman, has led in the race since he had a stunning upset against former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in the June Democratic primary. Now running as an independent, Cuomo is looking to make a political comeback by building a coalition of voters opposed to Mamdani, a democratic socialist. But Cuomo faces roadblocks by Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, who has vowed not to drop out.
Here are six things to watch in the race.
Can Mamdani improve in Black neighborhoods?
In the June primary, Mamdani struggled to win over Black voters, who a key part of the Democratic base. Cuomo, whose father Mario was also a Democratic governor of New York, performed well in majority-Black neighborhoods in the primary.
Since then, Mamdani has campaigned heavily in Black communities, including churches, across the city. Basil Smikle, a Columbia University professor and former state Democratic Party executive director, previously told USA TODAY that Mamdani had to convince Black voters skeptical of his ambitious campaign promises that include free buses, free universal childcare and a rent freeze in rent-stabilized apartments.
Embattled Mayor Eric Adams, the city’s second Black mayor, has endorsed Cuomo after bowing out of the race but he remains on the ballot. The two have attacked Mamdani and his supporters, seen as contributing to gentrification in communities of color.
Young voters carried Mamdani in the primary. Can they do it again?
Early voting numbers indicate older voters were turning out in higher numbers, which could be a positive sign for Cuomo, 67, as polls indicate he performs better than Mamdani among people ages 50 and older.
Mamdani, 34, needs to turn out young voters that gave him a resounding victory in the primary. He’s had viral social media moments around his campaign — whether about the effects of inflation in the city’s famous halal carts, or celebrity “Hot Girls for Zohran” backing him — benefitted from thousands of highly engaged younger supporters who have canvassed across the city.
Do Republicans believe Cuomo?
In the general election, Cuomo has made explicit appeals to Republicans to back him against Mamdani. He’s even sought to push Sliwa, founder of the anti-crime vigilante group Guardian Angels, out of the race.
If Cuomo can take enough Sliwa voters, there could be a path for him to form a diverse anti-Mamdani coalition.
How much have voters, particularly Jewish New Yorkers, shifted on Israel?
Mamdani has long been critical of Israel and its treatment of Palestinians. Some critics derided Mamdani as antisemitic for his views opposing Israel’s siege of Gaza, which he has called a genocide, an assessment shared by human rights groups and a United Nations commission.
In New York City, which has roughly 1 million Jewish residents, support for Israel has long been the norm among politicians in both parties. Cuomo and Sliwa have implied Mamdani is antisemitic over his position on Israel.
In the Democratic primary, Mamdani nonetheless received substantial support among Jewish voters. Public opinion has also continued to shift against Israel, including among Jews and New Yorkers, largely due to its harsh relatiation against Hamas in Gaza after the militant group’s Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israeli civilians.
Can Mamdani bring back communities of color that swung toward Trump in 2024?
New York City voted in record amounts for Donald Trump in 2024. Perhaps nowhere was the shift more visible than in majority-nonwhite neighborhoods who embraced his promise to lower costs, particularly Latino communities.
In the majority-Latino Bronx, Trump made large gains, the nonprofit news outlet The City reported. Former Vice President Kamala Harris won 73% compared to Trump’s 27%. But in 2016, Hillary Clinton had 89% to Trump’s 10%.
After Trump won in 2024, Mamdani visited the same areas where Trump made record gains, pitching himself in social media videos as a candidate for mayor addressing affordability. The election will be a test of whether Mamdani, and his focus on lowering the cost of living, can bring back nonwhite voters who swung to the right.
How do national Democrats respond to NYC?
National Democrats have kept Mamdani at arm’s length. The two top Democrats in Congress, both of Brooklyn, are at odds over Mamdani. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries issued a tepid, last-minute endorsement. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer hasn’t backed Mamdani.
If Mamdani wins again, Democrats could look to Mamdani’s platform to focus on affordability as a winning message. Or, as one GOP midterm strategy memo said, Mamdani could be a liability for the Democrats as they attempt to win back control of Congress.
