3 takeaways from last week’s Mobile mayoral election

MOBILE, Ala. (WALA) – A deep dive into the results of last week’s election offers both of the top two finishers different paths to victory in the Sept. 23 runoff.

Perhaps the most straightforward path for former Judge Spiro Cheriogotis is replicating the road worn by the man who endorsed him, outgoing Mayor Sandy Stimpson. He won his elections by running up the score among white voters. He won three victories that way without attracting significant black support.

For state Rep. Barbara Drummond (D-Mobile) to win, she must generate a bigger-than-normal turnout among black voters, win a sizable share of the white vote or some combination of the two.

Barbara Drummond; Spiro Cheriogotis(FOX10)

Both camps undoubtedly will scrutinize the results from Tuesday’s first round to help guide their runoff campaigns. Here are three takeaways:

The black vote fractured

As FOX10 News reported last week, former Police Chief Paul Prine’s support from African Americans was notable for a white candidate with a strong black challenger in the field. In Stimpson’s races, he tended to garner around 10 percent of the vote in the precincts where African Americans make up the largest share of voters.

In those same precincts Tuesday, Prine ran significantly better, cracking 20 percent in several instances. For Drummond, it is crucial to consolidate most of those voters behind her for the runoff.

Turnout lagged in the black community

Overall turnout Tuesday was about 26 percent, a slight increase from the 2021 election. But as has been the historical pattern, turnout was lower in the predominantly black precincts than the heavily white ones. That could prove decisive in a city split nearly evenly between white and African Americans if the vote distribution is racially polarized.

In the eight precincts where African Americans make up at least 80 percent of registered voters, turnout exceeded 25 percent in just one, Figures Park Community Center, where 25.3 percent of voters showed up.

In contrast, turnout was significantly higher in majority-white precincts. The highest turnout, for instance, was at Dauphin Way Baptist Church. African Americans make up just 12.9 percent of registered voters there. VIA! Health, Fitness and Enrichment Center off Dauphin Street and E.R. Dickson Elementary School off University Boulevard ranted second and third, respectively.

Those also are the three precincts where Cheriogotis ran the strongest.

Candidates had clear geographic strengths

There was a clear geographic trend in Tuesday’s voting. Drummond won 24 of the city’s 37 precincts, carrying the ones that overlap with her state House district and also showing strength in predominantly black neighborhoods east of Interstate 65. She also won several precincts in the northwest part of Mobile where the black population is not the majority but forms a significant minority.

Cheriogotis won seven precincts, mostly clustered in and around Spring Hill, a longtime Stimpson stronghold. He also won neighborhoods in Midtown in a corridor along Dauphin Street and Spring Hill Avenue.

Connie Hudson finished in fourth place, but she performed best among voters who know her the best. She carried four precincts in west Mobile that are within or adjacent to her County Commission district. Her top precinct – perhaps, not coincidentally – was the Connie Hudson Mobile Regional Community Senior Center off Hillcrest Road. She took 33.6 percent of the vote.

Prine won two precincts, both in extreme west Mobile. The polling places at Woodridge Baptist Church and Creekwood Church of Christ Schillinger Road both are in areas that voted in 2023 to annex into Mobile.

The Covenant Academy of Mobile precinct, which runs roughly between Government Boulevard and Dog River, was the most evenly divided. Just 124 votes separated Drummond’s first-place result and Hudson’s fourth-place total. It broke down like this:

Drummond: 26 percent.
Cheriogotis: 25.7 percent.
Prine: 25 percent.
Hudson: 23.3 percent.

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